Saturday, July 18, 2015

The Past, Present and Future of Blackberry

I read, somewhere, if you are going to write your first blog, the subject you choose, should be of your interest. So, I decided to write my first blog about Blackberry (big fan). In this first post, I'm writing about the past, present and future of Blackberry.


The Past:-


Blackberry, formerly known as Research In Motion (RIM), is a Canadian telecommunication and wireless equipment company, founded by Mike Lazaridis and Douglas Fregin in 1984. However, Douglas Fregin,  later left the company. Before coming to the mobile line, Blackberry introduced two-way pager models with thumb keyboards. The first model, the Interactive Pager, was announced on September 18, 1996, allowed users to receive and send messages over the internet via a wireless network known as Mobitex. This pager was pretty novel product since most of them up until then had only allowed for one way communication.


Inter@ctive Pager

In 2003 BlackBerry introduced the first of what we would think of as being the modern smart phone. This device also allowed the sending and receiving of email and text messages as well as web browsing. One of the main focuses of the early BlackBerry's was to allow for mobile email. It was clear that this was a technology that was necessary since email had become so popular. At this time, Blackberry primarily focuses on business rather than consumers. 


In 2006, Blackberry began to aggressively add consumers features to capture more of the consumers market from the competitors such as Treo and Motorola Q. For this purpose 8700-series models were introduced. The BlackBerry Pearl 8100 was the first BlackBerry without a trackwheel, which was replaced by a miniature trackball to enable full 4-way and mouse-style navigation on a BlackBerry. The look of the new trackball gave the "Pearl" its name. This was also the first Blackberry with a camera and media player.

By the time, Apple introduced iPhone in October, 2007, Blackberry counts more than 10 million subscribers. After a month later, Google joins major wireless carriers and handset makers HTC and Samsung in announcing Android, an open-source operating system for smartphones.

 The year 2007 marks the imminent fall of Blackberry. The shares of this Canadian company peaked in August of 2007, at $236. At this time, blackberry made its first mistake by ignoring the iPhone and the revolution it portended.

BlackBerry Storm
Blackberry Storm
    “In terms of a sort of a sea change for BlackBerry,” the company’s co-C.E.O Jim Balsillie said at the time, referring to the iPhone’s impact on the industry, “I would think that’s overstating it.”
 As early as 2009, BlackBerry’s share price had fallen to less than $50. By the time BlackBerry realized it needed to reach consumers directly, it was too late. In November, 2008, the company released its first touchscreen phone, the Storm, to middling reviews. In 2013, BlackBerry’s stock is worth just over ten dollars a share.  The last roll of the dice was BlackBerry 10. Originally set to launch in 2011, it was delayed into 2012, and didn't actually arrive until January 2013, when BlackBerry subscriptions had started to decline. Launching on the touchscreen Z10, which was soon followed by the more traditional keyboard-toting BlackBerry Q10, the new platform invited an inevitable "too little, too late" verdict from many quarters.
                                  
BlackBerry 10


Still, new Blackberry 10 rekindled some hope. In 2013, RBC Capital Markets stated that
    " BlackBerry’s new smartphone is stealing iPhone and Android users, which shows 45% of those buying Z10s converted from the two leading operating systems.  Recent data points suggest BlackBerry’s fourth quarter sell-through rate will come in substantially stronger than initially expected.  While projections were low to start with, both consumer and enterprise demand look encouraging.  BlackBerry 10’s success or failure will ultimately depend on U.S. demand, though, which makes up approximately 20% of the company’s subscriber base".

The Present:-


At present. the smartphones that runs on BB10 OS are  Z10, Z30, Z3, Leap, P'9982, P'9983 (fully touch screen) and Q10, Q5, Classic (QWERTY keyboard), Passport (QWERTY keyboard with touch gestures).
Blackberry Passport

According to report published by Bloomberg in February 2015, BlackBerry’s global market share slipped to 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter from 0.5 percent in the previous three months and in both the first and second quarters.Currently, Google's Android and Apple's iOS together have 96% of the world market.

There has been many rumors of  blackberry buyout, to which, the present CEO Mr. John Chen said
"I don’t have any intention to sell BlackBerry,”  in an interview on CBC’s The Exchange with Amanda Lang. “Not until the BlackBerry shareholder has good value reflecting truly what we have.” 


Period       Android   iOS   Windows Phone   BlackBerry OS     Others
Q1 2015        78.0%      18.3%           2.7%      0.3% 0.7%
Q1 2014        81.2%     15.2%           2.5%      0.5% 0.7%
Q1 2013        75.5% 16.9%           3.2%      2.9% 1.5%
Q1 2012        59.2% 22.9%           2.0%        6.3% 9.5%
Source: IDC, May 2015



To get, its glorious days back, Blackberry should focus on its marketing strategy. It has the worst marketing approach. BB Z10 is the best example of its victim. In my opinion, Z10 is one of the underrated phones. Another problem, the consumers face with BB 10, is the lack of Apps. Although, Blackberry, has done some great progress in this matter. Blackberry 10 OS (version 10.2.1 and later), has Android run-time for side loading APKs, it does not support all the apps though (which need Google Services). Snap is another great client for downloading Android Apps.

 

The Future:-


In March, this year, at MWC (Mobile World Congress) event, Blackberry has announced its upcoming Blackberry 10 Slider and since then, no more info has been officially published about it, except rumors. From the past few months, there has been another rumor and speculations of Blackberry going for Android-based smartphone. All these rumors started, when Reuters said that "Blackberry may put Android OS on new device". Until now, Blackberry has neither confirmed nor denied the rumor. And what Mr. Chen, CEO, said about this? here it is-
"We don't comment on rumors and speculation, but we remain committed to the BlackBerry 10 operating system, which provides security and productivity benefits that are unmatched,"


Blackberry Slider shown off at MWC

 Until few days ago, I had been thinking, Why Blackberry could not comment on rumors?

After all, today, whoever using Blackberry phones are either die-hard fans or the government officials. Government officials have to use BB only for the security reasons but what about the loyal fans?  Is John Chen not obliged to make fans known whether BB is going for Android or not? And what about the share holders? Blackberry is also infamous for ditching their users (remember Blackberry Playbook?). 

On the other hand, Apple and Google, if there would be any rumors regarding them, you can be damn sure, they would definitely confirm/deny it.Therefore, to end my curiosity, i started a thread on well known mobile community site Crackberry on the same subject. I received many opinions from different Blackberry users. I remember one user who told me about the Osborne Effect. Let me explain about it with an example. Suppose, if, Blackberry announced that there will be Android-based Blackberry at the end of the year, then the loyal BB users (if Blackberry ditch BB 10 OS) would switch to other platforms, they are using BB10 OS only because they don't want Android or iOS. So why would they buy Android-based BB. And also, why would Android users buy BB10 running  Android? They would rather go for the thousands of phones already available in the market at cheap price and they would also be concern about the "BB ditching factor". What if, only a year after, Mr.Chen stop supporting the Blackberry Android. So either way, announcement at this time will decline the selling of recently launched Passport, Leap. And it would also effect the shareholders. The timing of announcement of any product by any company does matter.

According to N4BB, the first Android running Blackberry would be low-end device and is called the Blackberry "Prague" . Another device powered by Android would be Blackberry 10 Slider "Venice" (codenamed). By the end of the year, everything will be clear, until then, its a game of wait and watch.

Few Final Thoughts :-
 
Windows phones, branded by Microsoft, also experienced a slight downfall. I think, Windows 10, launching on 29 July '15, is the last hope for Microsoft smartphones. For Blackberry, next 6 months, would be the best time for launching Android-based smartphone (if there is any). There are, currently, about 3% users of windows smartphones, if, Windows 10 fail then these users will move to either iOS or Android. Then, those going for Android, may want to try Blackberry running Android smartphones.Will there be Android-based Blackberry? Will Blackberry rise again? Only Time Will Tell.
 

P.S - This is my first blog, so suggestions are most welcome. Your suggestions will help me to write my next post more efficiently.